What is the future of flood prediction?

IAHS (the International Association of Hydrological Science) has developed over the last 100 years with a key role for the discipline, the community and society. IAHS and committed individuals have defended values, implemented mechanisms, facilitated partnerships and catalysed outcomes which were precursors of the now-called Open Science paradigme. 

In July 2022, IAHS celebrated its 100th anniversary year! The event provided an opportunity for both retrospective and prospective synthesis and debate on the discipline and its interfaces with other scientific fields and societal challenges.

My contribution

In the plenary event, I was invited to share my vision for the evolution of flood predictions. To me, the scientific community needs to continue evolving and better understand the evolving needs from different angles. In my presentation, I spoke about the perspectives of research, services and decision-/policy-making, and shared various beyond state-of-the-art insights and developments. 

In brief, I spoke of: 

• Novel data sources, data assimilation schemes, predictions beyond medium-range, 
• Impact-based forecasting, rapid impact mapping, persistency and consistency in the predictions, 
• Knowledge transfer and communication, and development of services for attributing flood extremes to climate change.

My presentation "Flooding beyond prediction - A reality of different perspectives" is open to all and available for download BELOW.